Is it worth door-knocking? Evidence from a United Kingdom based Get Out The Vote (GOTV) field experiment on the effect of party leaflets and canvass visits on voter turnout

Researchers working with the Liberal Democrats looked to see if partisan ‘get out the vote’ (GOTV) canvassing and leaflet have any impact on voter turnout in Britain. They also looked so see iff there was any difference between postal and non-postal voters. They tested this on a local election in Suffolk. They found notable effects on non-postal voters, but minimal/no significant affect on postal voter turnout. However, they also warned that further research is needed, and partisan appeals may cause increased turnout for voters of rival parties.

• Postal voter turnout was not significantly affected by either canvassing or leafleting.

• GOTV leaflets raised turnout by 4.3% for non-postal voters. Notable for one leaflet.

• Canvassing after leaflets leaflets increased voting by 4.9% - aka 0.6% higher than with just leafletting. So there was a minimal gain from canvassing as well as leaflet.

• Postal voter turnout was not significantly affected by either GOTV canvassing or leafleting.

• GOTV leaflets raised turnout by 4.3% for non-postal voters. Notable for one leaflet.

• Canvassing after leaflets leaflets increased voting by 4.9% - aka 0.6% higher than with just leafletting. So there was a minimal gain from canvassing as well as leaflet.

• Turnout doesn’t mean votes. Partisan leaflets may well have mobilised rival voters too. The Lib Dems vote share rose less than other parties in this election.

• Potentially it’s not worth doing too much GOTV campaigning (or at least leafletting and scripted canvassing) targetted at postal voters.

• If you don't have much time to canvas, you probably can get most of the impact of GOTV by leafletting alone.

• GOTV campaigning may increase turnout for opposing voters.

Study was conducted in Thedwastre North, Suffolk in the 2017 local elections. It had turnout in the 2013 local elections of 31.3% (slightly above national average of 31%.) The local authority voted 55-45% in favour of leaving the EU in 2016 and is relatively pro-Conservative. and where the Lib Dems were looking to gain the seat.

The research voters into postal and non-postal voters. Then split these two groups into three sub groups each -
that received a either 1. a leaflet and a canvas visit (on different occasions) 2. a leaflet and 3. nothing at all. The leaflets were partisan Lib Dem leaflets, and the canvas visit followed a short script which again was trying to persuade the person to vote lib dem. It covered 6525 people (3371 households.) The group were randomised by household. Note any household which had one postal voter was defined as a postal voter for the purpose of the study.

One of this studies strengths is it focused on simulating real canvassing. Where most people will get a leaflet, and parties then try to follow up with canvassing where it can. One thing they particularly wanted to do, was see if postal voters were different, but also how valuable these follow up canvassing calls were. So its quite practical in its underlying focus.

However, since it’s looking at partisan campaigns, their focus on turnout not votes for the party - means it doesn’t tell you much about the value of leafletting/canvassing to get people to turnout and vote a certain way.